Forecasting the Diffusion of Grid Connected Solar PV Systems in Pakistan


Forecasting the Diffusion of Grid Connected Solar PV Systems in Pakistan

Khanji Harijan, M. Aslam Uqaili, Ehsanullah

Khanji Harijan, M. Aslam Uqaili, Ehsanullah "Forecasting the Diffusion of Grid Connected Solar PV Systems in Pakistan" Published in International Journal of Trend in Research and Development (IJTRD), ISSN: 2394-9333, Special Issue | ICTIMESH-18 , December 2018, URL: http://www.ijtrd.com/papers/IJTRD19214.pdf

Pakistan is facing severe load shedding problem due to a demand-supply gap of about 5-8 GW. Fortunately, the country receives 5-7 kWh/m2/day of solar insolation. The potential of grid-connected PV plants in terms of installed capacity is about 1600 GW. This paper presents the forecasts foran installed capacity of solar PV systems for grid-connected electricity generation in Pakistan. The logistic model and analogous approach are used for forecasting the diffusion of PV systems. The paper concludes that about 920-3060 MW of grid-connected solar PV systems could be added to the power supply in Pakistan up to 2030. These projected installations of grid-connected solar PV systems are only 1.2-4% of the maximum assumed the technical potential of solar PV systems for grid-connected electricity generation in Pakistan. The use of grid-connected solar PV plants would help to overcome power shortage and reduce the overdependence on hydropower, the adverse environmental effects of fossil power plants and the dangers of nuclear power plants in Pakistan.

Electricity Generation; Grid Connected; PV systems; Solar Energy;


Special Issue | ICTIMESH-18 , December 2018

2394-9333

IJTRD19214
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