C. Azhagapuri, P. Ponraj
In past years, the high rates of development of the Soviet economy have required the employment of a quantity of labour power in the national economy that has considerably exceeded the natural growth of manpower resources. By the end of the 1960s, additional sources of labour power - households and the rural population - were essentially exhausted. The percentage of pension-age persons employed in the national economy can hardly be increased. As a result, many branches of the national economy have begun to experience a manpower shortage which is slowing down the development of the economy and retarding the increase in the effectiveness of production. In 1971-1975, the rational use of manpower resources will also be an important problem since this five-year period is on the threshold of the period when the increase in manpower resources will decline a generation born during years with a low birth rate will come of working age. Formal manpower planning has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper considers the problem of establishing a manpower policy for defined skill categories in the face of uncertain demands. At one extreme an organization might hire and fire personnel as the demand for their services varies over time. Alternatively, the work force might be held constant at a predetermined level and supplemented with overtime or subcontracting when manpower demand exceeds the supply. Models representing these two strategies are developed and compared. Examples are presented to illustrate their economic implications, and several simple rules of thumb are derived to guide manpower policy decisions.
Natural Growth of Manpower, Manpower Resources, Economic Implications, Manpower Policy Decisions